Bangladesh elections test ties with India as China deepens outreach

Bangladesh Gears Up for Pivotal Polls Amid Political Upheaval

Bangladesh stands on the brink of a landmark election scheduled for February 12, marking the nation's first vote since a dramatic student-led uprising in August 2024 toppled the long-ruling prime minister Sheikh Hasina. Her ouster ended years of what many described as autocratic governance, paving the way for an interim administration led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus. This transitional government has promised to restore democracy, but concerns linger over the fairness of the polls. Critics point to the banning of Hasina's Awami League party and complaints from opposition groups about exclusionary practices. The stakes are high, not just domestically but across the region, as the outcome could redefine Bangladesh's place in South Asia's complex geopolitical landscape. Economic woes like inflation and slowdowns add urgency, with voters seeking stability after years of turmoil.

The historical context underscores the election's significance. Past polls, such as the violent 2014 vote, saw boycotts, arson at polling stations, deadly clashes with police, and low turnout around 40 percent. Awami League candidates won nearly half the seats unopposed back then, amid widespread unrest. This time, under Yunus's oversight, there's hope for a cleaner process, though skepticism persists. Minority safety and economic recovery are hot-button issues, intertwining with foreign policy shifts that have drawn global attention. Dhaka's leaders emphasize sovereignty, vowing not to meddle in others' affairs while rejecting interference in their own—a stance many interpret as a subtle jab at neighbors.

Strains Emerge in India-Bangladesh Relations

Ties between Bangladesh and India, once robust, have frayed significantly since Hasina's fall. New Delhi's decision to shelter the exiled former leader, despite Dhaka's repeated extradition demands, has fueled resentment. The interim government's frustration boiled over, prompting a pivot away from its giant neighbor. India, sensing the chill, slashed its financial aid to Bangladesh in recent budgets, a move reflecting the deteriorating rapport. Identity politics in both nations complicate matters further, with mutual suspicions hindering cooperation. Analysts note that India hopes a newly elected government might reset relations, but rebuilding trust won't be straightforward. Border issues, trade disputes, and water-sharing talks remain flashpoints, testing the resilience of this vital partnership.

"Bangladesh wants to treat first nations as friends, not overseers. We will not interfere in the internal affairs of other nations and will not accept interference in our own," stated an official from Dhaka, underscoring the push for sovereign equality.

China and Pakistan Step Up Engagement

As relations with India cool, Bangladesh has warmed to China and Pakistan, altering regional dynamics. Beijing, a long-time partner, supplies over 70 percent of Bangladesh's arms imports and funds major projects like the Mongla Port upgrade and Teesta River water management—initiatives that irk New Delhi amid stalled bilateral negotiations. Yunus's March 2025 visit to China featured comments portraying Bangladesh as a gateway for Chinese economic extension to India's landlocked northeast, heightening Indian anxieties. A new trilateral dialogue with China and Pakistan, mirroring one involving Afghanistan, signals Beijing's intent to expand sway. Meanwhile, thawing ties with Pakistan—strained since 1971's bloody independence war—include eased visas, direct shipping links between Chittagong and Karachi, and talks on defense deals like JF-17 fighter jets. These moves suggest Dhaka's strategy to diversify alliances and counterbalance influences.

The elections could amplify these trends. Parties like the resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami now explicitly pledge friendly ties with India based on mutual respect, hinting at nuanced foreign policy platforms. Yet, ordinary Bangladeshis prioritize non-interference and economic pragmatism over superpower rivalries. Beijing's deepening outreach positions it to gain regardless of the winner, potentially reshaping South Asia's power balance. India watches warily, fearing marginalization in its backyard.

In summary, Bangladesh's February 12 elections highlight a nation at a crossroads, balancing internal reforms with external partnerships. Strained India links contrast with growing China-Pakistan bonds, promising shifts in regional geopolitics as Dhaka asserts independence.