How the war in Iran threatens food supply everywhere

Strait of Hormuz: The Chokepoint at Risk

The war in Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a flashpoint with far-reaching consequences for global trade.

This vital waterway, which handles a massive portion of the world's oil and fertilizer shipments, has seen shipping traffic plummet by more than 70 percent since the conflict erupted in late February. Drone and rocket strikes on tankers have made the area too dangerous, driving up maritime insurance costs to prohibitive levels and effectively halting much of the flow. Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq rely heavily on this route to export crude oil, primarily to Asia, where about 60 percent of transiting ships are tankers.

A prolonged shutdown here doesn't just affect energy markets; it strangles the movement of essential fertilizers like nitrogenous types, urea, and sulfur, which are crucial for crops everywhere. Nearly one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through this corridor, and disruptions are already spiking prices, with urea costs jumping 19 to 30 percent in recent weeks. Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere, gearing up for spring planting, face tough choices as supplies tighten just when they need them most.

Fertilizer Shortages Spark Global Food Worries

Fertilizers are the backbone of modern agriculture, accounting for up to 25 percent of production costs, and the Iran conflict is putting one-third of the world's supply chain in jeopardy.

Countries in the Gulf, including Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, are key exporters of urea, diammonium phosphate, and anhydrous ammonia—products farmers from Iowa to India depend on. With natural gas shipments down sharply, the feedstock for nitrogen-based fertilizers has dwindled, exacerbating shortages already strained by prior events like the Ukraine war and Chinese export curbs.

India, China, Indonesia, Morocco, and several sub-Saharan African nations stand to suffer the most from halted sulfur exports, vital for phosphate fertilizers. Palm oil from Southeast Asia and grain imports to Gulf states have stalled, hitting food supplies in import-dependent regions hard. Higher energy prices from the oil crunch are inflating everything from crop cultivation to livestock feed, milling, transportation, and refrigeration—costs that will inevitably trickle down to grocery bills worldwide.

Ripple Effects and the Path Forward

Immediate fallout is hitting Persian Gulf countries hardest, where food imports grind to a halt, pushing prices skyward and straining already vulnerable populations.

“The crisis brought on by this conflict reveals a systemic failure at the heart of our global food system. Almost half of global food production now depends on synthetic fertilisers produced by a small number of fossil fuel and agrochemical giants, leaving families and farmers to pay the price the moment fragile supply chains break.”

Globally, the timing couldn't be worse: Southern Hemisphere planting decisions and rice applications in South and Southeast Asia could falter, leading to lower yields and reignited food inflation. The U.S. is stepping in with naval escorts and war risk insurance to ease passage, but alternative routes lack the capacity for the 20 million barrels of oil that normally flow daily. Policymakers watch anxiously for signs like China's phosphate export stance, factory shutdowns, shifts in planted acreage, and commodity futures trends.

This vulnerability exposes the fragility of our centralized, fossil fuel-dependent food system. While some call for domestic production to build resilience, poorer nations fear a "green divide" where only wealthy countries can afford alternatives, leaving others to battle famine amid soaring prices.

In summary, the Iran war's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is fueling fertilizer and energy shocks that threaten harvests and food security from local markets to dinner tables everywhere, underscoring the need for diversified supply chains to avert a broader crisis.