Russian crude flows to India rise slightly in February as RIL resumes imports, says Vortexa

Slight Rebound in Russian Crude Imports to India

India's imports of Russian crude oil experienced a modest increase in February 2026, primarily driven by Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) resuming its shipments after a brief pause. Energy analytics firm Vortexa reported this upturn, noting that flows rose slightly from earlier lows in the month. This comes after several months of decline, with January seeing a 12% drop in volumes due to refineries like Jamnagar halting purchases. Despite the rebound, overall imports remain below peak levels, hovering around 1.2 million barrels per day, the lowest since late 2022. This shift reflects India's delicate balancing act between securing affordable energy and navigating international pressures.

The resumption by RIL, one of India's largest refiners, signals confidence in discounted Russian barrels even as global tensions persist. Previously, India had ramped up Russian crude buys post the 2022 Ukraine conflict, turning Russia into its top supplier with shares peaking near 40%. These imports helped fuel India's booming petroleum exports, particularly to Europe, boosting the economy through refined products like diesel and aviation fuel. However, recent pullbacks have been linked to U.S. demands for reduced reliance on Moscow's oil in exchange for trade concessions.

Geopolitical Tensions Shape Oil Trade Dynamics

The Ukraine conflict fundamentally rewired India-Russia energy ties, expanding bilateral trade over fivefold since 2022. Russian crude, once a tiny fraction of India's basket, now accounts for a substantial portion, though volumes have moderated. Western sanctions redirected discounted oil to Asian markets, benefiting buyers like India amid rising global prices. Yet, U.S. pressure has intensified, with former President Trump's administration linking tariff relief to curbs on Russian imports. A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling scrapped emergency tariff powers, potentially easing constraints, but uncertainties linger.

Indian refiners have diversified, boosting buys from Iraq and the Middle East to offset Russian dips. Discounts on Russia's Urals grade have widened to $15-20 below Brent, making it attractive despite risks. Five Indian refineries processing Russian crude exported products worth hundreds of millions to sanctioning nations, highlighting the indirect benefits. Russia remains India's second-largest crude supplier after China in global export shares, with India taking about 38% of its seaborne flows.

"India should drive a harder bargain now that U.S. tariffs have been challenged legally; this reduces pressure on our energy choices while managing political risks," said Biswajit Dhar, economics professor at New Delhi’s Council for Social Development.

Future Outlook Amid Trade Negotiations

Looking ahead, analysts forecast further declines, with March imports potentially dropping to 800,000-1 million barrels per day. Refiners like Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum are tendering for Middle Eastern crude, positioning for sustained lower Russian volumes. India-U.S. trade talks continue, with an interim deal cutting tariffs from 50% to 18%, but no firm commitment to halt Russian buys has been confirmed by New Delhi. Bilateral trade hit record highs last fiscal year, with a massive deficit driven by energy imports, yet investment goals aim for $50 billion by year-end.

Russia's oil finds alternative markets in China and Turkey, leaving surplus barrels at sea. India's strategy prioritizes citizen interests through cheap energy, enhancing its global export prowess. As shadow fleets and special vehicles bypass sanctions, calls grow for broader maritime bans to curb revenues. For India, the rebound offers short-term relief, but long-term diversification seems inevitable amid evolving geopolitics.

In summary, February's slight rise in Russian crude flows to India, led by RIL's return, underscores resilience in energy ties despite downward pressures from trade pacts and sanctions. India continues leveraging discounts for economic gains while adapting to global shifts.