The one number in the India–US trade deal that hurt Pakistan’s feelings

The Tariff Tweak That Triggered a Meltdown

US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with India that caps tariffs on Indian exports at 18 percent, a move hailed as a breakthrough for bilateral ties.

This came after months of negotiations, with India securing relief from a previous 50 percent tariff, including a punitive 25 percent levy for buying Russian oil.

Pakistan, however, remains stuck at 19 percent despite its leaders' high-profile efforts to cozy up to the Trump administration.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir had lobbied hard in Washington, even hosting dinners at the White House and nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Yet, the one-percentage-point difference in tariffs has ignited a firestorm of criticism across Pakistan, from social media to opposition benches.

Viral posts mocked the situation with phrases like "mover, shaker, and beggars," capturing the national frustration over being sidelined.

Pakistan's Diplomatic Gamble Backfires

In Pakistan, the reaction has been swift and stinging, with many questioning the strategy of overt flattery toward Trump.

Opposition leaders from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party pointed out that India negotiated from a position of strategic autonomy, refusing to beg or overly appease.

"Trump is a businessman. He saw a manager and a shopkeeper and gave them a shopkeeper's deal. India came as a partner and walked away with the 18 percent prize. This is the cost of having a government without the backbone of a public mandate," digital creator Wajahat Khan posted online, voicing a sentiment echoed by many.

Journalists like Asad Toor and Imran Riaz Khan piled on, warning that the higher tariff compounds Pakistan's economic woes, including falling exports and scarce foreign investment.

Critics argue that photo-ops and personal outreach yielded nothing substantial, leaving Pakistan at a competitive disadvantage in the vital US market.

Textiles, apparel, and other export sectors, already under pressure, now face an even steeper hill as Indian goods gain a slight edge.

India's Broader Trade Triumphs

For India, the US deal is part of a larger wave of trade successes.

In recent months, New Delhi has inked pacts with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Oman, and New Zealand—five agreements in just 12 months, its most rapid diplomatic push in years.

The EU free trade agreement, often called the "mother of all trade deals," opens zero-tariff access to Europe's vast market, potentially adding billions to India's exports.

Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized that the US pact protects sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy while boosting labor-intensive industries.

Analysts see this as India diversifying away from over-reliance on any single partner, hedging against global uncertainties like Trump's tariff wars.

Upcoming summits with leaders from Canada and Brazil signal continued momentum, positioning India as a key player in a multipolar world.

Competitors like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Malaysia face higher US tariffs—20 percent, 20 percent, and 19 percent respectively—further highlighting India's relative gains.

What This Means for South Asia

The 18 percent tariff figure isn't just a number; it's a symbol of shifting power dynamics in South Asia.

Pakistan's discomfort stems from realizing that praise and proximity don't guarantee favorable outcomes when bargaining from a weaker position.

India's approach—patient, diversified, and principled—contrasts sharply with Islamabad's more desperate tactics, forcing a moment of introspection.

Economically, the deals could add up to $150 billion in Indian exports over the next decade, reshaping regional trade flows without a single shot fired.

For Pakistan, it's a wake-up call amid ongoing tensions, including past military escalations that ended only after direct appeals for ceasefires.

As India builds alliances with middle powers and majors alike, Pakistan grapples with isolation, its leaders assessing not just tariffs but broader strategic implications.

This India-US trade deal, with its pivotal 18 percent tariff cap, underscores India's diplomatic savvy while exposing Pakistan's vulnerabilities, potentially altering South Asian economic landscapes for years to come.